In recent months, both the United States and Russia have announced plans to deploy new missiles in Europe. 

This development has raised concerns about a potential new arms race and increased global tensions. 

The New Nuclear Threat: Understanding the US-Russia Missile Race

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• US and Russia announce new missile deployments in Europe, sparking fears of a renewed arms race.

• China’s growing missile arsenal complicates the situation, making it a three-way competition.

• Experts warn of increased risks of conflict and diminishing prospects for new arms control agreements.

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A Brief History

Back in 1987, the US and the Soviet Union signed a treaty banning land-based intermediate-range missiles. 

This was a significant step towards reducing Cold War tensions. 

As Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev told US President Ronald Reagan at the time: “We can be proud of planting this sapling, which may one day grow into a mighty tree of peace.”

However, in 2019, the US withdrew from this treaty, accusing Russia of violations (which Russia denied).

What’s Happening Now?

Russia has announced it will resume producing short and intermediate-range land-based missiles. 

As President Vladimir Putin stated on June 28: “Russia would resume producing short and intermediate-range land-based missiles… and take decisions on where to place them if needed.”

Meanwhile, the US plans to deploy new missile systems in Germany starting in 2026. 

These moves are happening against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions between Russia and the West.

Why It’s Concerning

Security experts worry that these new deployments could escalate tensions and increase the risk of conflict. 

Jon Wolfsthal, director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists, explains, “Every move that the United States or Russia make puts pressure on the adversary to respond in some way, politically or military. That’s the definition of an arms race.”

Even if the missiles are equipped with conventional warheads, each side has to consider the possibility that they could be fitted with nuclear tips in the future.

The China Factor

Complicating matters further is China’s growing missile arsenal. 

China wasn’t part of the 1987 treaty, so it has been free to develop these types of missiles. 

A 2023 US Department of Defense report states, “China’s rocket force has 2,300 missiles with ranges between 300 km and 3,000 km and 500 that can travel between 3,000 km and 5,500 km.”

The US cited concerns about China’s capabilities as one reason for withdrawing from the treaty with Russia.

What’s Next?

Unfortunately, experts don’t see an easy solution. 

The chances of a new arms control agreement like the one from the 1980s seem slim. 

Instead, we may be entering a period of increased missile deployments and rising tensions between multiple countries.

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